Feinberg Forecast: First Post-Nominations Read of the Oscars Landscape

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself.

*BEST PICTURE*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert & Jonathan Wang)
2. The Fabelmans (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison & Christopher McQuarrie) — podcast (Bruckheimer)
4. Elvis (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Pamela McCormick & Schuyler Weiss)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Male Grunert)
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin & Martin McDonagh)
7. Tár (Todd Field, Scott Lambert & Alexandra Milchan)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron & Jon Landau)
9. Triangle of Sadness (Philppe Bober & Erik Hemmendorff)
10. Women Talking (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner & Frances McDormand)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
2. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Todd Field (Tár)
5. Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)

*BEST ACTOR*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Austin Butler (Elvis)
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
2. Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
3. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) — podcast
4. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
5. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
4. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
5. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
3. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
4. Hong Chau (The Whale)
5. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Projected Order of Finish
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
2. Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
3. Living (Kazuo Ishiguro) — podcast
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
2. Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
3. The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
5. Tár (Todd Field)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alex Bulkley, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson & Gary Ungar) — podcast 1 and 2 (del Toro)
2. Turning Red (Lindsey Collins & Domee Shi)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (Dean Fleischer Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan & Paul Mezey)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford & Mark Swift)
5. The Sea Beast (Jed Schlanger & Chris Williams)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Navalny (Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae & Daniel Roher)
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons & Laura Poitras)
3. Fire of Love (Shane Boris, Sara Dosa & Ina Fichman)
4. All That Breathes (Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann & Shaunak Sen)
5. A House Made of Splinters (Monica Hellström & Simon Lereng Wilmont)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Projected Order of Finish
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) — Edward Berger
2. EO (Poland) — Jerzy Skolimowski
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) — Santiago Mitre
4. Close (Belgium) — Lukas Dhont
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) — Colm Bairéad

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Mandy Walker)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
3. Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
4. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Darius Khondji)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter) — podcast
4. Babylon (Mary Zophres)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
3. Elvis (Matt Villa & Jonathan Redmond)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E. G. Nielsen)
5. Tár (Monika Willi)

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier & Aldo Signoretti)
2. The Whale (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin & Adrien Morot)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Linda Eisenhamerová & Heike Merker)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend & Joel Harlow)
5. The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Fontaine & Mike Marino)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
2. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Projected Order of Finish
1. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Chandrabose & M.M. Keeravani
2. “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems
3. “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — BloodPop & Lady Gaga — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
4. “This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
5. “Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren — podcast 1, 2 and 3

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin & Karen Murphy)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
3. Babylon (Anthony Carlino & Florencia Martin)
4. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole & Ben Procter)

*BEST SOUND*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Elvis (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson & Wayne Pashley)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor & Mark Weingarten)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil & Markus Stemler)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers & Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
5. The Batman (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson & Mark Weingarten)

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri & Eric Saindon)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson & Ryan Tudhope)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller & Frank Petzoid)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Bauman, Craig Hammack, San Sudick & R. Christopher White)
5. The Batman (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon & Dominic Tuohy)

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

Projected Order of Finish
1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Matthew Freud & Charlie Mackesy)
2. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon)
3. My Year of Dicks (Sara Gunnarsdóttir & Pamela Ribbon)
4. The Flying Sailor (Amanda Forbis & Wendy Tilby)
5. Ice Merchants (Bruno Caetano & Joao Gonzalez)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Stranger at the Gate (Conall Jones & Joshua Seftel)
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue & Beth Levison)
3. How Do You Measure a Year? (Jay Rosenblatt)
4. The Elephant Whisperers (Kartiki Gonsalves & Guneet Monga)
5. Haulout (Maxim Arbugaev & Evgenia Arbugaeva)

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

Projected Order of Finish
1. Le Pupille (Alfonso Cuarón & Alice Rohrwacher) — podcast 1 and 2 (Cuarón)
2. The Red Suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
3. An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkely & Ross White)
4. Night Ride (Gaute Lid Larssen & Eirik Tveiten)
5. Ivalu (Rebecca Pruzan & Anders Walter)